Liftoff! America Must Go

Chapter 0: Red Moon Rising Serialization

I am sharing insights from my new book, with Peter Navarro, Red Moon Rising: How America Will Beat China on the Final Frontier on this Substack. Today, I’m offering you a sneak peek into the final chapter on space policy. You can find the full book on Amazon.

The desire for safety stand against every great and noble enterprise.

— Tacitus

The United States now sits astride the global space business in much the way that it dominated so many industries of the last century. America is launching most of the world’s rockets. America is building most of the world’s satellites. Foreign startups don’t just set up design studios in California, they move their headquarters there, build real factories, and conduct their operations in the United States. Space entrepreneurs are immigrating to America, and global investors are pouring capital into US space startups. In what other manufacturing industry is that true? Our policy makers and regulators deserve a round of applause for creating an attractive business environment while successfully protecting our national security and ensuring public safety. We are also the world’s explorers, drawing the maps and breaking our own records. NASA has far more satellites orbiting our planet than any other nation’s space agency. We fly more astronauts than anyone else. We are the only country to have robotically explored all the planets in our solar system (including Ceres and Pluto428). We walked on the Moon, and we are going back to develop it. Our military capabilities in space are peerless. America has redundant and responsive access to space, the best in-space maneuverability, and the ability to deny those capabilities to others. The space industrial base supporting that strength is by far the best in the world. America could just do a mic drop here, but history shows that being number one is transitory, and our competitors in Communist China are students of history. We must keep our sleeves rolled up and stay at work. Here is a partial list of what must be done soon:

Beat China to the Moon

While NASA originally targeted “Boots on the Moon” for 2024, that date slipped to 2025 and now looks like 2027. Meanwhile, Communist China has announced a 2030 Moon landing, and they have been relentlessly on time in other space endeavors. There will be no silver medal. If the Chinese sink their flag first, is Congress going to spend billions so America can be runner-up? The crucial item in this race is the Human Landing System. Both of the HLS designs NASA is supporting depend on on-orbit cryogenic refueling, an important capability that has never been demonstrated before. Pressure must be kept on SpaceX and Blue Origin to deliver. They also need extraordinary support. In particular, we must clear licensing backlogs, smooth regulations, and remove perfunctory legal hurdles that slow testing.

Stay on the Moon

Beating China is not enough. China, Russia, and a collection of dubious allies are building a Moon base. We must remain committed to the mandate in President Trump’s first Space Policy Directive for a sustained and permanent human presence on the Moon. Language from NASA has wavered on this point. Our commitment to stay on the Moon must be unambiguous.

Develop the Moon for the Benefit of the US and Free World

Funding from the US Geographical Survey (USGS) should be provided for research and development of dual-use mining technologies that enable both space resource extraction and advanced terrestrial mining. Some specific technologies include the rapid detection and automated assaying of subsurface mineral deposits and AI-enabled autonomous deep mining systems. NASA’s Science Mission Directorate should be funded to conduct additional exploration of lunar and asteroid resources.

Support and Enable Commercial Development of Mars

Mars is an expensive and distant mission for NASA. Today’s goal must be beating China in securing the resources of cis-lunar space. Brilliant minds like Elon Musk of SpaceX and Tim Ellis of Relativity Space are eager to support commercial development of Mars with private capital. The US government must be there to facilitate those efforts and broadly engage the power of entrepreneurs and private investors in meeting national space goals, much as the British Empire supported private overseas development via commercial ventures such as the East India Company.

Educate, Educate, Educate

Aerospace engineering, space business, space law, and space policy programs should be supported.

Free the Private Sector and Ensure Our Regulations Are Aligned to Win

Winning the second space race is all about the private sector. We won’t beat China in a competition of large governmental programs; commercial space is America’s best weapon. Continued engagement of the commercial space sector is critical, and retaining the world’s factory floor for space is a prerequisite for success in science, exploration, and military space. President Trump’s second Space Policy Directive called for streamlining regulations to “minimize uncertainty for taxpayers, investors, and private industry.” This policy directive should guide legislation and regulatory behavior. The offices supporting the commercial sector must be in positions of consequence appropriate to the significance of this industry and their mandates. The Office of Space Commerce must be removed from inside of NOAA and restored to its original position within the department, reporting directly to the Secretary of Commerce. The Office of Commercial Space Transportation must similarly be removed from under the FAA and restored to its original position, reporting to the Secretary of Transportation. This office should also be directed by a presidential appointee.

Deal with the Debris

Everyone agrees that keeping space accessible and low Earth orbit safe is critical. The mandate in President Trump’s third Space Policy Directive must be implemented, and the Office of Space Commerce must be adequately funded to fulfill that important function. Rather than funding an expensive governmental system for debris removal, governments responsible for creating the debris (China, Russia, the US, and Europe) should establish a fund and pay a bounty to any organization, governmental or commercial, that removes their debris. Objects could be valued based on their nature, size, and orbit. The most dangerous ones will be tagged with the highest bounty. This debris bounty system will engage global private capital and produce competitive solutions with multiple future applications. Most importantly, nothing is paid out until debris is actually cleared. We do recognize the reality that China and Russia are unlikely to be cooperative and that Europe will write a very tiny check. America will once again have to take the lead here and likely foot the bill, but we also have the most to gain as our commercial firms dominate LEO.

Clarify Roles

The FCC must be entirely focused on its job of allocating and protecting the radio spectrum. The Office of Commercial Space Transportation must remain wholly dedicated to the task of streamlining and accelerating the review processes for launch and reentry systems and spaceports. The Office of Space Commerce should handle matters on orbit. The Space Force Must Own Space It is time for the Space Force to boldly assume a future-forward role of protecting US governmental and commercial interests in an increasingly congested and conflicted cis-lunar space. That mandate should be clarified, and the Space Force should be transitioned out of the Air Force as a fully independent branch of the military. Clarify or Renegotiate the Outer Space Treaty for the Twenty-First Century Developing the nearly infinite resources of our solar system for the benefit of all humankind requires that firms are able to compete under free market rules. Congress should be asked to develop follow-up legislation to the Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act (CSLCA) of 2015 and work with our partners in the Artemis Accords to include language that supports transferable and collateralizable real property rights for facilities on the Moon, at asteroids, and in desirable orbits. The lack of sovereignty in Article II impedes enforcement and invites conflict on celestial bodies. Protection under the rule of law must eventually be as clear for individuals and organizations acting in space as it is on Earth. Unpoliced frontiers have a notorious history of conflict and human rights abuses. History on Earth clearly shows that regardless of the treaty language, the CCP will usurp territory on the Moon and implement their draconian rule under de facto sovereignty. The scope of liability in Article VI must be more clearly defined and constrained so that every action of any entity in a very busy future space environment need not be elevated to the level of state diplomacy.

Go Nuclear

Nuclear power is necessary for the development of the Moon and the exploration of deep space. Developing nuclear power technologies for space will benefit Earth, where nuclear offers the only real solution to our longtime environmental concerns. Nuclear propulsion is a well-understood technology that will dramatically shorten trips to Mars, the asteroids, and beyond. It is essential for the development of a space economy. Additional funding should be provided to the Department of Energy and NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate for the development of practical nuclear space propulsion and power solutions.

Go Space Solar

In the future, space-based solar (SBSP) promises to unlock the nearly limitless power of the Sun for use on Earth, freed from the limitations of nighttime, weather, and latitude. On a small scale, SBSP has immediate applications for powering military operations in remote locations as well as for disaster relief and rescue operations in areas without power. We need to stay ahead in this area, and China is moving quickly. Funding should be provided to the Space Force to develop and deploy a maneuverable one- to five-megawattSBSP satellite to test this application and refine the technologies needed for larger scale commercial applications.

The Worst-Case Scenario

Testifying before the House Natural Resources Committee in December of 2023, Dr. Greg Autry (coauthor) and Professor Michelle Hanlon, executive director of the Center for Air and Space Law at Ole Miss, were asked by Congressman Mike Collins of Georgia’s Tenth Congressional District, “What is the worst-case scenario if China wins the race for space mining, and how will that impact the United States?” Dr. Autry: I don’t want to be hyperbolic, but if China wins the race in space, we’ve ceded the strategic high ground militarily and ceded the entire economic future, and the United States will be relegated to a backwater position for the rest of human history. I honestly think this is an existential point. Prof. Hanlon: I agree with Dr. Autry. The Chinese will have the opportunity to block our access not just to the Moon but to all of space, and humanity’s future lies in space. We have a lot of problems here on Earth to deal with but a lot of the answers we will find in space, including I believe ultimately, peace. America and our free world allies can win Space Race 2.0, or we can fade into the obscurity of history as China’s Communist Party ascends to the heavens. Humankind’s future will be based either on the ideals of the Enlightenment or on “Xi Jinping Thought.” There is no compromise middle road. This book was intended to get you, the public, to push your governmental representatives into swift, constructive, and consistent action supporting an effective American space policy. Make that visit, pick up that phone, send thatemail. Talk to your friends. As spaceflight controllers say before launch, “Go!”

Greg Autry, is the Associate Provost for Space Commercialization and Strategy at the University of Central Florida. He is also a Visiting Professor in the Institute for Security Science and Technology at Imperial College London. Dr. Autry served on the 2016 Presidential Transition Team at NASA. President Trump appointed him White House Liaison at NASA in 2017 and nominated to be NASA’s Chief Financial Officer in 2020. He chaired the Safety Working group for the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee at the FAA.